The Liberal party is teetering on the brink of a leadership challenge, with Sussan Ley's recent concessions to the Nationals reportedly alienating key MPs and potentially bolstering her rival Angus Taylor's chances of a spill.
It's been a tumultuous week for the Liberal party, and the dust has barely settled on the deal to reunite with the Nationals. However, whispers of discontent are growing louder, with some Liberals suggesting that Ley's eagerness to mend fences has backfired, potentially costing her crucial support and pushing wavering MPs into the arms of her leadership challenger, Angus Taylor. The stage is set, and many are bracing for a leadership spill to be called as early as this week.
While Ley publicly declared that the majority of her colleagues believe the two parties are "stronger together," a starkly different sentiment is being expressed in private. One Liberal MP, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed grave concerns, fearing that this reunion could ultimately lead to the "destruction of the Liberal party." This MP articulated a potent critique: "It is in essence an abandonment of all Liberals that live in our cities. Why would they vote for a party that is in coalition with the Nationals, when the Nationals’ only policy objective is to be more rightwing than One Nation?" This raises a critical question: Is the Liberal party sacrificing its urban appeal by aligning with a party perceived as increasingly right-wing?
This dramatic turn of events comes just 17 days after David Littleproud, the Nationals' leader, declared the Coalition "untenable" under Ley, leading to a significant rift over Labor's hate speech laws. The subsequent announcement of the reunion on Sunday afternoon was presented by Ley as a move towards unity: “It’s been a difficult time for millions of our Coalition supporters and many other Australians who rely on our two great parties to provide scrutiny and national leadership, but the Coalition is back together and looking to the future, not the past.”
But here's where it gets controversial: The peace deal involves a temporary suspension of former Nationals frontbenchers from the shadow ministry until March 1st, after which they will resume their old portfolios. During this interim period, Littleproud and Nationals' deputy leader Kevin Hogan will attend senior leadership meetings, even without formal frontbench positions. Both leaders reportedly made significant concessions to finalize this deal before Ley's self-imposed Monday deadline for a Liberal-only frontbench.
Ley, in particular, is said to have softened her initial demand for a six-month suspension for three senators who crossed the floor. The Nationals, who had vehemently insisted no punishment was warranted, have now agreed to some form of sanction. And this is the part most people miss: these concessions, while seemingly aimed at unity, have apparently divided the Liberals and intensified the pressure on Ley's leadership.
Sources indicate that figures like Taylor, along with James Paterson, Dan Tehan, and James McGrath, have been advocating for a swift Coalition reform. Even former Prime Minister John Howard is reported to be in favor. However, a significant contingent, including many moderates, were reportedly content with a longer-term separation from the Nationals, especially given the country party's perceived drift towards more right-wing policies, a move often seen as a response to the influence of Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce's One Nation.
The core issue now is Ley's damaged credibility. Five Liberal sources have shared their belief that the concessions made to reunite the Coalition have weakened Ley's standing. They suggest this could sway a crucial bloc of undecided MPs towards Taylor, even though he was also pushing for the Coalition's reunification. Ley, however, dismisses this notion, asserting, “The overwhelming majority of my party room knows that the Coalition is stronger together.”
Some Liberals are finding it difficult to overlook the Nationals' decision to break ranks and oppose the hate speech laws, a move that sparked criticism from the Liberal party's conservative wing who had hoped for a similar stance. One MP went as far as to describe the Nationals' behavior as “unconscionable,” especially during the 17-day split. They lamented, “By joining the Nationals we are condemning ourselves to being seen as the junior partner to One Nation. One Nation wins. We now have their wannabe cousins, the Nationals, dictating how Liberals should set their policy agenda.”
A separate MP, who previously doubted the likelihood of a leadership challenge, now considers a spill “inevitable,” viewing the shorter suspension period as a significant retreat that will tip the scales in Taylor's favor.
While a leadership spill is considered unlikely at Tuesday's Liberal party room meeting due to Senate estimates, preparations are underway for a potential second meeting later in the week, possibly on Friday. For Taylor to challenge, he would first need to resign from shadow cabinet to support a spill motion and then contest the ballot.
It's worth remembering that Ley narrowly defeated Taylor in the post-election leadership ballot, securing 29 votes to 25 with the support of a diverse coalition of MPs. One moderate powerbroker acknowledged Ley still has their support but admitted to deep disappointment over the concessions made to the Nationals, particularly after the recent struggle to preserve the net-zero target.
Former moderate Liberal MP Jason Falinski, who favored a longer separation, offered a more pragmatic view, calling the compromise deal “not a bad outcome” and acknowledging the high obstacles to reunification. A senior conservative, meanwhile, described Ley's decision as “sensible,” aiming to avoid a repeat of the parliamentary disarray seen the previous week.
So, what do you think? Have Sussan Ley's concessions strengthened the Liberal party's position, or have they sown the seeds of internal division and potentially paved the way for Angus Taylor's leadership? Share your thoughts in the comments below – we'd love to hear your perspective!
